16 Days to Go – Cooler Heads Needed Here

By Sherwin Pomerantz

With 16 days to go to September 20th when the Palestinian Arab leadership intends to present their petition for the UN approval of statehood, there seems to be a new initiative on the part of the United States to convince the Palestinians not to go through with this.

The reasons are pretty obvious to all. In the first place, the US has indicated that while it will use its veto power in the Security Council to block that body’s approval of the petition, it really does not want to do this. If it does use the veto it will destroy the US’ credibility both with the Palestinian Arab leadership as well as the rest of the Arab world and make it impossible for the US to have any long term role in further peace efforts in the region.

Secondly, there is great concern throughout the world and the region as to what will happen on the ground after the vote and clearly the US would prefer to see the issue not come to the table thereby averting an unpredictable set of events that could be difficult to manage and contain. The Palestinian Arab leadership for its part seems hell bent on going through with this but, of course, this is the Middle East and the word “certain” does not appear in the general diplomatic language of the region.

As if this was not enough of an issue to deal with over the next two weeks, Turkey continues its threats against Israel and every day seems to up the ante for restoring relations between the two countries to the level they were up until the flotilla incident in May 2010. Turkey has now downgraded its emissary in Tel Aviv to the level of 2nd Secretary and is threatening to take military action should anyone try to interfere with their shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean. The clear implication being that if it should try to break the blockade of Gaza by itself and Israel were to try to block such an attempt, Turkey would resort to military action. That threat seems to be spooking the west as well.

In a reversal of its general trend to always criticize Israel for whatever ills befall the region, the New York Times today in a lead editorial said the following on this subject:

"We don’t blame Israel for wondering if Turkey is keeping this conflict going to burnish its standing in the Arab world. Turkey is risking a lot, including billions in trade with Israel and its reputation as a responsible international player. Israel certainly doesn’t need to be any more isolated than it is. Israel should apologize for the deaths. And Turkey should stop upping the ante."

I would agree that Israel should apologize for the deaths of the Turks on board the Mavi Marmara, which is simply good conduct between friends. We would expect no less if the tables were turned. The Israeli government’s reluctance to do so is just foolhardy diplomacy. But Turkey’s continued harping on the subject and using it as an excuse to change the relationship between the two countries is even more unreasonable.

Herman Wouk would say that the winds of war are kicking up quite a storm in our region and, of course, when that happens any misstep can cause the diplomatic parrying to turn into full scale hostilities.

Cooler heads need to prevail if war of any kind is to be averted. Turkey should tone down the rhetoric, Israel should do what it needs to do to show its good faith in that effort, and the Palestinian Arab leadership should withdraw their petition for UN membership as they stand to lose much more by going ahead with this than the gain they might have convinced themselves will be theirs.

But, of course, when was the last time cool heads prevailed in our part of the world? Let’s hope!