11 Days to Go – Resetting the Clock

By Sherwin Pomerantz

With 11 days to go to the opening of the 66th Regular Session of the UN General Assembly on September 13th it seems now that the Palestinian Arab leadership will not submit their request for statehood until September 20th, so we will re-set the countdown clock by one week and now call it 18 days to go.

The real question remains what the Palestinian Arab leadership really wants at the end of the day, a state or the ultimate elimination of Israel? Many people, of course, believe the latter.

But today there is yet another new regional development that is also quite worrisome. The UN has published what is known as the Palmer Report on the Gaza Flotilla Incident of May 2010. The report sustains Israel’s right to impose the blockade on Gaza as an enemy entity bent on Israel’s destruction while somewhat castigating Israel for the manner in which the country approached the Mavi Marmara and carried out its attempt to foil the blockade.

Turkey is clearly disturbed that the report was not more forceful and that it did not lay the entire blame for everything at the feet of Israel. Given that the Turkish Government announced today that it was expelling Israel’s envoy to the country and cutting all military cooperation with Israel, and that this is only the first of a series of steps to downgrade the relationship between the two countries, the situation is of concern.

On the Israeli side some of the members of the government here suggested that diplomacy demands that we, in turn, expel the Turkish envoy to Israel in retaliation for Turkey’s action. Time will tell whether there is sufficient support for that in Israel but, no doubt, it will be a popular action among the locals here.

But what is more disturbing is the severing of military cooperation. On the one hand, the strategic cooperation in the defense sector between Israel and Turkey has been critical to the long term interests of both countries and the attempt to maintain a relatively balanced military footprint in the region. My guess is that the defense establishments in both countries are upset about this decision by the political leadership in Turkey.

However, what is of even more concern is the indication as to who is really calling the shots in Turkey. Traditionally ever since the modern country of Turkey was founded by Ataturk as a secular society, it has been the military that has zealously protected that concept and made it work in this Muslim country. In the past when the political element tried to move the country away from secularism to a more traditionally religious framework, the military took action to prevent that.

Two months ago the political leadership sacked a whole raft of senior generals and replaced them with people more in keeping with the desire to increase the religious influence in society. Today’s action takes this one step further by clearly indicating that the political establishment is in full control even over the military. The stage seems set, therefore, for an increasing amount of religious influence in all spheres of government which will also have the effect of moving the country further out of the western political orbit.

To those of us who have spent considerable time in Turkey this is a sad turn of events as the country was always held up as an example of a Muslim country that could be politically secular, democratic in nature and a full respecter of human rights. Over the last few years as a result of the emergence of the AKP party as the dominant political force in the country, human rights have been consistently violated. Recent statistics have shown, for example, that Turkey has the largest number of media people in jail for taking public positions against the stance of the ruling party. The purge of the military last month was another nail in the coffin of the secular democracy. Today’s action against Israel shows just how far the power balance has shifted in favor of the AKP.

The sands in the region have shifted dramatically over the past six months and there is no telling how far they will move. Israel, of course, as the only truly democratic country in the region (admittedly not as much of a western democracy as a Bolshevik one) will have its mettle tested as it attempts to navigate these difficult waters simultaneously dealing with the ongoing events at the UN. To say the least, the next few months will bear critical watching.