46 Days to Go – The Worst Case Scenario

By Sherwin Pomerantz

With 46 days to go to the opening of the UN General Assembly and the vote on Palestinian statehood it is probably time to take a look at worst case scenarios and what might happen the day after the UN vote, regardless of the which way it goes, although I still believe that it would be best if the vote were negative.

First of all there is Iran, who will be a menace in the region regardless of how the vote goes or even if it does not come to a vote.

Reza Kahlili, a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who requires anonymity for safety reasons, writes in the Washington Post this week:

"While America focuses on its internal problems and its involvement in three wars and the world focuses on the global economy, Iran is progressing on three dangerous fronts: nuclear weapons, armed missiles and naval capability. It is estimated that Iran will have enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb within two months and currently has enough low-enriched uranium for three nuclear bombs. Iran is also perfecting its missile-delivery systems. The (revolutionary) guards' ballistic missiles have a range of 1,200 miles, covering all U.S. bases in the Middle East and all of Israel, and now they possess missiles from North Korea with a range of 2,000 miles, which covers most of Western Europe."

About the naval capability he writes:

"In an alarming July 18 statement, Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari said the Iranian navy plans on deploying warships in the Atlantic Ocean as part of a program to ply international waters, although he did not say where in the Atlantic the ships would be sent. Two days later, Rear Adm. Seyed Mahmoud Mousavi revealed for the first time that the Iranian navy has equipped a number of its logistic vessels and units with long-range surface-to-surface missiles. He stated, "Missile frigates and destroyers have been equipped with these missiles since a long time ago, and the surface-to-surface missiles of the logistic vessels were successfully tested and assessed during the recent naval war games, dubbed as Joushan." So an Iranian navy ship or any commercial vessel operated by the Iranians could easily launch a missile from outside the Gulf of Mexico and essentially cover most of the United States. Much more alarming is the fact that once in possession of a nuclear bomb, Iran could successfully carry out its promise to bring America to its knees by a successful electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the country."

He closes by stating that “A nuclear-armed Iran will change our world with horrific consequences.”

Closer to home, Ha’aretz reported this week that Mahmoud al-Zahar, a prominent Hamas member in Gaza said of the UN vote: “The approach to the UN is a 'political scam.'” He is equally unequivocal on the so-called two-state solution, which aims at an Israeli state and a Palestinian state existing side by side. "We are not going to recognize Israel. That is very simple. And we are not going to accept Israel as the owner of one square centimeter because it is a fabricated state. On what moral basis was Israel established? On the right of return (of the Jews) after 4,000 years? It's just imagination." He says accepting Israel's right to exist would "cost 10 million Palestinians their right to Palestine. Who can pay that price? Who will go to the refugee camps and tell the people you have no right on Palestine?"

Finally, of course, there is the Israeli annexation movement spearheaded by Jerusalem Post Deputy Managing Editor Caroline Glick. She has taken the position that Israel only has two alternatives, either to annex all of Judea and Samaria (known as the West Bank) or be destroyed by its neighbors. According to her and others here in Israel who have aligned with her, there is no future in a two state solution and any attempt at coming to terms with the Palestinian Arabs is doomed to failure. Therefore, the only option is to take Judea and Samaria and make it part of Israel.

What a series of options eh? Be nuked by Iran, engage in long term war with Hamas or annex Judea and Samaria and run the risk of full regional war which, of course, has the potential to start World War III in earnest (although some of us believe that it has already begun). But war, of course, will not solve anything. Bertrand Russell is quoted as saying “War does not determine who is right, only who is left.” No one can argue with that but in these difficult days it is a real challenge even for an optimist like me to see a positive end to this without a significant amount of interim bloodshed. How I hope I am wrong.