45 Days to Go – The Best Case Scenario

By Sherwin Pomerantz

There are now 45 days to go to the opening of the UN General Assembly and the vote on Palestinian statehood.

Yesterday I painted a picture of the worst case scenario (although there are probably even worse ones than what I portrayed) but all is not negative. So let’s look at the possible positive side of all of this. After all, could I have lived here for almost 28 years if I didn’t think that there is, indeed, always a best case scenario? Of course not!

First of all, Israel has been up against threats to its survival for all of its 63+ years of existence. While there have been periods when things appeared quiet, under the surface there was never real quiet, never real peace, never real security, just a better situation sometimes as opposed to others. Yet through all of this, wars, homicide bombers, busses blowing up, envoys killed in far off places and well, there is no end to the list, Israel has prospered. Today, with all of the economic chaos going on in the world, the economy here is doing well, unemployment is at its all-time lowest levels, and indices of happiness are high.

Of course, over the past week hundreds of thousands of people have been demonstrating against the economic inequalities of this society, given high prices for food, housing and day care along with what is becoming a severe imbalance in the assets of the rich vs. the rest of society. While the demonstrators have a case and all of us are affected by things such as paying 10 times as much for spare parts for cars than people pay in the west (according to this morning’s papers), even those demonstrations are constructive. They reflect, in a very real way, the freedom people have here to express their opinions, criticize the government and demand change without the fear of political retribution. In spite of our faulty democracy, we still live in a country that respects people’s individual rights to voice their opinions and the demonstrations show the strength of that theory.

On the issue of relations with our Palestinian Arab population, much of the present activity pushing for UN recognition is a direct result, in my opinion, of a misguided US president who has chosen to be more Palestinian than the Palestinians. President Obama has put ideas in play that the Palestinian Arab leadership might never have put on the table but, once Obama said it, the Palestinians had no choice but to agree. Obamas insistence, for example, that all building in the settlements as well as East Jerusalem must cease, was a gift to the Palestinian leadership that they never expected from a US president. As such, their position has become more intransigent than it has ever been and has had the effect of forcing Chairman Abbas up a tree while the President has effectively left the garden. So much for depending on the US to be a broker.

As regards the UN vote, here too, there is an optimistic side. A host of Palestinian Arab leaders have publicly stated that it is a mistake to go the UN right now for a vote. Even an Arab country like Jordan has decided to vote “no” should the issue come to a vote. So while Chairman Abbas publicly claims that he will not be deterred, back channel meetings are held between representatives of both sides in order to find some way to avoid a nasty experience at the UN. While it is still not 100% clear why this week’s meeting in Amman between Israeli president Shimon Peres and Chairman Abbas was cancelled, just the fact that the meeting was scheduled, in itself, is a positive sign.

In politics, 45 days is a long time to be sure. While I believe that we must continue to do everything in our power to convince UN members to vote “no” should the issue of Palestinian statehood be brought to the General Assembly, in my heart I am convinced that the intelligentsia on the other side understands that it is not in the best interests of the Palestinian people to move ahead with a statehood request at this time. So on this too, I am somewhat optimistic.

This is a difficult time in the Jewish calendar. The run up to the observance of the Ninth of the Hebrew month of Av (Tisha B’av) next Tuesday has always been a treacherous time for our people during which, historically, terrible things happened to our ancestors and their communities. But, by nature, we are an optimistic people and we know that after Tisha B’av comes a most joyful period in the Hebrew calendar culminating in the New Year observances seven weeks later and the Sukkot festival just two weeks after that. So, regardless of the state in which we may find ourselves today, there is always tomorrow and tomorrow brings with it the promise of positive change. And it is that promise that propels me and gives me hope.